When Saddam said he would fight the Americans fiercely if attacked he was just bluffing. He didn’t have anything to fight them with. Iran’s officials are saying the same if attacked by the U.S. and Israel. However, the equation is not similar. Iran is not Saddam’s Iraq. It’s much stronger.
Last Saturday, The Independent reported that Iran would attack back if attacked. The paper quoted the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Mohammed Jafari saying, "Iran's response to any military action will make the invaders regret their decision and action." The same thing was mentioned in an interview conducted by the Washington Post’s Thomas Erdbrink's with Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, special adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “As has been said before: Any government that tries to invade Iran will regret its actions,” said Hashemi.
Is that possible? I guess it is. Since the end of its war with Iraq in 1988, Iran has not been directly involved in any war. During all these years, their industry-militarily and socially- grew greatly due to the self-sufficient policy the country has adapted. It’s a wealthy country and is easily capable of depending on this wealth to improve their military.
If attacked, I believe Iran would really retaliate. Their military is not as ill-equipped as Iraq’s under Saddam. Let’s not forget that Saddam’s air force was banned and that was one of the strongest reasons why he lost when Iraq was invaded by the U.S.-led forces. Iran, on the other hand, does have the ability to fight the Americans or the Israelis by air force. If so, the results would not be easy or simple. Iran can easily fly over Iraq and bombard American military bases, while others would spray Israel- which is not far from Iran- with a string of rockets and missiles that would horrify the Jewish nation’s people who are already terrified of the small rockets launched by Hezbollah and Hamas.
Iraq, of course, will be in the middle. There is nothing more to be done by then. I suspect the Americans would regret the day they supported Maliki, his government and the Shiite-majority parliament. Maliki has just said his stance on all of this fuss: his government would not allow Iraq to become a launching pad for an attack on its neighbor. Of course, it wouldn’t. Iran has been a major role player in the Iraqi politics since Saddam was even in power. When he was ousted, Iraq became officially in the hands of the Iranian regime like candy in a basket. Very simple, and yet the Americans still do not get it. In his book “War Journal,” Richard Engel wrote about this issue which most Americans did not even consider worthy thinking about. The war made Iran very happy because they toppled their long-term enemy and brought their fellow Shiites to power. Now, if the Americans launched strikes from Iraqi lands, this would make the Americans big liars because they stressed on the fact that Iraq is sovereign and no longer occupied by them. It’s not like Qatar, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia whose governments did let them launch their rockets from their lands. I doubt Maliki or any Shiite politicians approve attacks from Iraqi lands. But if they do, Iranians will consider them betrayers of the nation that hosted them during their struggle against Saddam.
In the end, not only Americans and Israelis would suffer the hard strikes Iran would launch, but also the Iraqi people would because they are going to be stuck in the middle. It’s been five years since they never felt peace, and more wars would drag them again into another well of bombardments and strikes. I believe Shiite militiamen who have been well-trained by Iran would not sit back and watch. They will be on their trainers’ side, of course. That’s the whole objective of why they were trained, in addition to weaken the Americans in Iraq. Along their side, I think Sunni insurgents would seize the opportunity of the Americans’ vulnerability and fight them fiercely. They hate the Shiites but as it is said, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Then, Iraq would be dragged again into another wave of disasters, wiping off all the efforts to stabilize it.
The problem in this issue is that all sides involved (Iran, Israel and the U.S.) are arrogant bullies. It looks like fourth grade kids fighting outside their school’s yard, except that this one may include rockets, tanks, and warplanes. None of them understands that they will all hurt their people. In my opinion, they should sit down and negotiate before they drag the world into another bloody war. The world has witnessed enough wars and needs a break. It really does.
